{\rtf1\ansi\ansicpg1252\deff0\deflang4105{\fonttbl{\f0\fnil\fcharset0 Calibri;}} {\*\generator Msftedit 5.41.21.2510;}\viewkind4\uc1\pard\sl240\slmult1\qc\lang9\ul\f0\fs22 Friday February 9, 2018\par \ulnone\par \pard\sl240\slmult1\ul\fs40 Tampa Bay -- Post time 12:45PM\par \fs22\par Race 2 (Start of the P4)\par \par \ulnone #5 DIVINE AMBITION is a great points bet and an easy way to start your day with a little house money. He very seldom runs a clunker and today finds himself in a great spot from a dynamics standpoint. He cuts back to this elongated sprint after routing last time, gets pace to chase and has a useful tightening prep since his last start. $500 to show gets you an easy $50 if he pays $2.20, plus the juice your ADW gives you on the side.\par \par This race is also of interest to me because it's the start of the early Pick Four and I'm very interested in playing it. Any one of these six can win and since I have stronger opinions deeper into the sequence, I'm going to use them all here in the hope of a good price.\par \par \ul Race 3\par \par \ulnone I want to take a shot on this race for two big reasons, the first of which is my perceived vulnerability of the likely favorite, #1 GREELY IS BACK. Listen: I'm a huge fan of trainer Justin Johns and this horse sure did run in his most recent start, but that came against cheaper conditioned claimers in a race where he was the absolute lone speed. Today, not only does he have other speed horses -- who I think are actually faster than him early -- to his outside, but he jumps up to face saltier, open claimers. Don't forget, either, that this is a horse that was two for 30 coming into that last start and one that has shown an absolute aversion to both winning and passing other horses to win. Those combined with his short price make him an easy "beat me if you can" pass. The second reason is the #9 BEAR'S PROFIT. He debuts off of the claim for one of my Stable Mail trainers, Edwin Diaz Jr., who has out-of-this-world numbers in all categories, especially those pertaining to first-timers in his barn. Two back, this horse peaked and ran a big one before a combination of a little bounce and lousy trip caught up to him last time. Today, for Diaz Jr., he's drawn outside of all of the speed, gets a collapse scenario to chase and his odds will be as good as they've been in awhile.\par \par I'll use him in the Pick Four, along with #2 GOOD SAMURAI and #6 W W CONCERTO.\par \par \ul Race 4\par \par \ulnone I very seldom put a lot of faith in cheap claimers, especially cheap conditioned claimers, especially when they're moving up a condition, but I still can't resist singling #8 ROYAL FLAME here. He absolutely demolished that last group, laying four-wide in the middle of the track for much of it and running away at the end. It was his first start for a reduced claiming price, so this isn't really much of a hike and, quite frankly, there isn't anything in here that can run with him if he's even half as good as he was last time. The other good news is that he's likely the speed of the field and is ideally drawn from outside to dominate again. So I'll have my eggs in the basket of Ademar Santos in back-to-back races, never thought I'd ever say that! Go Ademar!\par \par \ul Race 5\par \par \ulnone I'm using all in this leg of the Pick Four, mostly because I have no strong opinion about the race but also because this condition on the grass often produces upsets at Tampa Bay. Come on with the big price!\par \par \ul Race 6 (Start of the P4)\par \par \ulnone This race closes out the Pick Four and starts another and there's no question #7 IPANEMA BEACH will be the favorite and a deserving one at that because she's already proven she's a runner. Watch the replay of her debut at Keeneland in October. Without the trouble, she breaks her maiden at first-asking. She then followed it up with a sneaky-solid run in that G2 in Louisville in November. She's been brought along nicely for her sophomore debut by Rusty Arnold and it's extra-encouraging that Landeros is coming to Tampa to keep the mount, tipping his own hand that she's legit. Will she win? At 3-5 or better I'll bet yes. I'm using #4 ENOUGH as my underneath key. She's from my Stable Mail. Watch the freak show trip she was welcomed to the racing game with on January 13 at Tampa. She took money that day and when Shug's first-timers take money, it's usually a strong indication that they can run because he's not known for having one ready by choice in their early stages. This is a tall, leggy filly that I think can run a little bit, especially at this added distance and her price might be better than it should be because of that dirtied up debut. Besides, the majority of players will use either the Clemente rail runner or the Pletcher debutee as their strongest underneath keys, so I'm content siding with #4 ENOUGH and Gallardo.\par \par \ul Race 7\par \par \ulnone A deep second leg of the late Pick Four, I'm using:\par \par #1 GODDESS OF KIP\par #4 DESERT FOLLY\par #5 ENIGMA\par #7 HASSAH\par #8 QUEEN OF THE PARTY\par #9 LUCKYSTRIKEDELCOCO\par \par \ul Race 8\par \par \ulnone Loading up in this leg as well as it's an absolutely wide-open maiden claimer and but for a couple of complete tosses, any can win, including:\par \par #1 THELIFEOFTHEPARTY\par #3 GRIS\par #4 MAYBEYESMAYBENO\par #5 OX TROT\par #6 MAJESTIC VOYAGE\par #7 SLANTED TRUTH\par #8 JOHN BOY BOOGIE\par #10 SYNDICATE SAVER\par \par \ul Race 9\par \par \ulnone The French bred, #5 LIBERALE, finds her class today and I think she could win with Liberace riding! She stands out like a sore thumb. I won't be risking it by playing her to win, but after loading up in the middle legs of the Pick Four, I'll be singled to her in this last leg.\par \par Good luck playing Tampa Bay today and hopefully the time we've invested in all of this study and research will pay some dividends (which usually can be qualified by simply not losing!)\par \par Enjoy the day!\par \par }